Arizona's Own Espresso Pundit

No Trasoff Gabby...

The Tucson City election was both historic and extraordinary.  Nina Trasoff was the first Democratic incumbent to be thrown out in like 40 years.  Karin Uhlich survived by around 150 votes; all the over rides went down and even Proposition 400 which allows the city to spend money it has already collected went down. 

When you are trying assess how Tuesday's election will affect the 2010 race, remember that Tucson is the Democratic core of Gabby Gifford's district.  Yet, if the election were held today, Giffords would have to struggle to win an election in Tucson itself.  Add back the Republican portions of the district and CD 8 is looking like solid Republican territory. 

Some argue that Republicans actually have their best shot in 2012.  After all, Arizona will be drawing new districts in 2011 and in order to protect Grijalva, the redistricting commission is likely to give him more of the urban Tucson vote.  That leaves Gabby with a much more Republican district. 

That's a good analysis, but it neglects a key point...those moderate democratic voters only vote in Presidential elections.  Sure, they are likely to be Grijalva voters in 2012 but they will stay home in 2010. 

Take a look at the 2006 election results and compare them to 2008. (Click to Enlarge)

 

Notice that Gabby got an extra 40,000 votes in 2008?  That's not population increase, it reflects increased turnout in a Presidential election.  Tim Bee's 140,553 votes would have defeated Gabby in 2006--when she only got 137,655.  Of course if the drop off was evenly spread among Republicans and Democrats, it wouldn't matter.  But I think it's clear that the increased vote total in 2008 was part of an Obama surge--young energetic Independents and Democrats who turned out to the polls in order to make history and who aren't coming back in 2010.  So Giffords has had the benefit of running in two elections in which Democrats have done very well.  Now in 2010, the mood has shifted and the turnout will drop. 

Trasoff's gone, and if Republicans can field the right candidate in 2010, there will be no Trasoff Giffords.

Those who argue that the 2012 election offers Republicans a better chance are also neglecting another major factor--the high degree of voter angst is pushing Independents to vote for Republicans in large numbers. Meanwhile, her vote in favor of nationalized health care and cap and trade have shown that her claim to be a "Blue Dog" is just so much bunk. 

So the iron is hot in 2010.  If someone is going to beat Giffords, it's going to be now.

 Here's another example of how ticked off the Tucson Voters are.  Check out this video. 

Well, you had to see that coming...

Buyouts are generally followed by layoffs and the Arizona Daily Star is no exception.  Last week you will recall that the Star offered a buyout to employees over 50 and tonight, the paper laid an additional five employees off. 

La Raza to the Bottom

There's much wailing and gnashing of teeth among the Tucson Intelligentsia over the defeat of the school overrides.  How could the enlightened voters of Tucson--after years of training by the Star--overwhelmingly reject much needed budget overrides?  Perhaps the university professors, think tank operators and newspaper editors should stop asking each other that question and turn to some real voters.  

A friend of mine did just that at the Tucson gun show yesterday.  Sure, it's not scientific to wander around the gun show and ask people why they think Tucson voters rejected the overrides, but the answers he received were instructive.

And the answer?  "Those damn La Raza programs."   For some reason the guys at the gun show didn't think that a program that teaches that the founding fathers are racists and Che Guevara was a hero deserved any more funding. 

But you respond that the gun show crowd's response isn't not logical.  After all, the overrides funded a lot more than TUSD Ethnic Studies programs, and some of the overrides weren't even for TUSD.  That's true, and the elite opinion makers can whine about that over brie and lattes if they want, but eventually they will figure out that voters aren't exceptionally analytical.  They vote on a 30-second impression: "he's an honest candidate, or "she can bring about change", or "TUSD is really screwed up and they have all these radical leftists wearing Che T shirts and teaching kids about the evil white guys." 

Well, the "evil white guys" voted no.  Disrespect ordinary voters long enough and they tend to do that. 

Technology that's a bit too helpful...

I was picking up my daughter from a junior high field trip and I texted her that I was in the parking lot.  Her tour was running a bit late, so she wanted to text back that she needed more time and she decided to try out her first year Spanish skills and texted back "un momento por favor".

Unfortunately, she has installed an auto fill feature on her phone called "T-9".  Unfortunately T-9 doesn't recognize Spanish and had no idea what she meant so the message that I received was "unobserved momentous porn favor"

Hmm, perhaps a little too much help.

How the Other Half Lives

Information is now divided into three distinct sections.  There's the stuff that's covered in the mainstream media--what I call "corporate news."   Then there's the vast, unregulated blogosphere where the real news breaks.  I mention that there are three sections because the Blogosphere is divided into left and right and each section not only has its own culture, but each half also has its own information.

Confirmation Bias--the tendency for people to only read the informatio that conforms to their world view--ensures that the left reads the left side of the Blogosphere, while the right only reads the right half. 

Here's an example.  If you get your information from the mainstream media or the left side of the blogosphere, you probably have never seen this chart.  If you pay attention to the right side of the blogosphere--Drudge, Instapundit, Power Line, IMAO etc.  You will be very familiar with the chart--having seen it on the first week of ever month since early last summer.

The chart is based on the Obama administration's estimate of job losses without his Stimulus package and with his Stimulus package.  The chart is so effective and powerful because someone has simply posted actual data on top of Obama's own projections.  The chart eventually went mainstream and last month's version was featured a Wall Street Journal editorial. 

I think that the bifurcation of the Blogosphere is one reason why the left and the right have trouble communicating.  So for example, when Obama talks about the jobs his Stimulus package has "created or saved" the Right will think of the chart and immediately understand that the claim is ridiculous.  The left and the mainstream media--who have never seen the chart--don't understand why readers of the right side of the blogosphere audibly guffaw when ever someone repeats the administration's silly claim. 

Say it Aint So Joe.

Check this out from Reason TV.

The amazing video below was taken on October 19 in Arizona's Maricopa County Superior Court.

As defense attorney Joanne Cuccia discusses her client's sentencing hearing with the judge, Maricopa County Sheriff's Department detention officer Adam Stoddard walks up behind her, and begins sifting through one of her files, which she has placed on the defense table. Remarkably, Stoddard then removes a document from the file and hands it off to another deputy, who then leaves the courtroom with it. They don't even bother to inform Cuccia, who has her back turned the entire time. The judge appears to have missed the incident as well.

Best AZ Campaign Commercial of the Cycle...Guaranteed

Wow, this is a great commercial.  Hmm, you know with a few clicks of a mouse, the graphic could be changed from "State Senate" to "Congressional District 8."  Just saying.

One more Upset?

The Tucson City Council race between Uhlich and Garcia is getting tighter.  They are only seperated by about 450 votes and there are still nearly 5,000 ballots out--and those ballots are trending Garcia's direction. 

...Must...avoid..."Uhlich" pun...

Tucson's Topsy Turvy Turmoil Takes Toll on Trasoff

Here was my Tucson Election Prediction.

So If I have to predict, I would say it's still likely that the Democrats will prevail. But if you are looking for one upset in your Pol Pool, bet against Trasoff. 

Indeed, with 98% of the vote counted, Trasoff is down by well over 1,000 I don't think she has conceded yet, but that looks to me like it's mathematically over.  She's the first Democratic incumbent to lose a a City Council seat in over 40 years. 

The Tucson Vote looks like a massive protest vote.  Voters rejected the school overrides by substantial margins, prompting a shell shocked Daily Star to proclaim the end of the world.

Voters have failed Tucson's kids. But the failure to pass most school districts' bids for budget overrides in the general election won't only harm kids in classrooms.

 

The failure will ripple throughout the community. School budgets will be slashed and employers looking to set up shop in Tucson will read this as a giant, flashing warning sign to stay away. It's hard to blame them.

So what does last night mean? 

Well, the national results confirm what we have been seeing in the polls for a few months.  Voters are really ticked off and they are moving away from Democratic incumbents. It's becoming clear that Democrats are going to lose a lot of seats in 2010. 

However, now it's clear that Tucson voters--rather than lagging the trend--are actually going to lead it.  They seem to be more surly than voters in the rest of the state. 

Naturally, that brings me to Tucson Congresswoman Gabby Giffords.  She's facing a double whammy--a national trend in which voters are moving back to Republicans in large numbers combined with a local anti-incumbent/anti-establishment sentiment in which voters from reliably liberal Tucson rejected their school over rides and threw out and incumbent city councilwoman. 

At the moment, Giffords faces Jesse Kelly.  Kelly certainly isn't the strongest opponent that Republicans could mount against Giffords.  But he may end up being a Trent Franks--someone viewed as too conservative to get elected, but who is in the right place at the right time.

Gifford's strongest opponent, of course, would be Jonathan Paton, but the timing isn't quite right.  Paton is enjoying an extremely successful Senate career and is likely to be Senate Majority Leader next year.  Paton could be forgiven for thinking that his best shot is to move into Senate Leadership and then wait until 2012 when the districts are reshuffled.  That way he will have a stronger resume and she may have a more Republican District.  Tim Bee went through a similar thought process when he decided to take the Senate Presidency and run against Giffords while she was an incumbent rather than challenge her for an open seat in 2006.  In retrospect, the Senate Presidency was actually a net drag on Bee's Congressional chances. 

So Paton has an awkward choice.  Jump now, leave a successful career in order to capitalize on widespread voter angst, or spend an additional two years in preparation.  My Tim Bee analogy was a good one, but Paton is a military man and CD 8 is a military district, so I'll put it in terms that he and his supporters might prefer--Grant or McClellan.  McClellan was the General's General, perfect in every way except one.  He wouldn't fight.  Grant was opposite, never waiting for the perfect time, fighting at every opportunity.  Grant's on the $50 and McClellan is a Jeopardy question.

If Congress is Paton's goal.  Now is Paton's time. 

Does the Trib's Demise Help the Republic?

The Business Journal has a good story on how the closure of the Tribune might affect the Republic. 

The East Valley Tribune’s demise leaves The Arizona Republic as the sole daily newspaper in the 12th-largest U.S. media market. But media and advertising experts don’t see the Gannett Inc.-owned Republic gaining on the advertising side of the equation because of the Tribune’s closure at the end of the year.

So if you are looking for a comment on the demise of the Trib and its effect on the Republic, who would be a good person to call...one guess.

Greg Patterson, EspressoPundit.com blogger and a frequent critic of the Republic, said the Republic should heed the Tribune’s death.

“The Trib’s closure is important to the Republic because both papers were on the same path; the Tribune is simply further along,” Patterson said. “The Republic doesn’t have a viable business model, either. The question is simply how many years the Republic can hang on.”

My Pick of the Week

It's illegal to bet on elections and I don't know anything about sports, so with the exception of a short--but successful--stint at professional blackjack, I don't gamble much.  But if betting on elections were legal, the Tucson City Council race would be my pick of the week. 

The race should be a Democratic sweep.  The Tucson City Council race features two Democratic incumbents seeking re-election and a prominent Democrat running for a long time Democratic seat.  Under Tucson's Jim Crow vestige voting system, all three candidates are running city wide, so even if a candidate is trying to win a Republican Ward, he has to be elected by a majority of the entire city. 

Frankly, a Democratic Sweep is still the most likely outcome. But in elections--like March Madness--it's the ability to spot the potential upsets that gets a handicapper the big bucks. 

There are three factors that put the seats in play.  First, there's the general dissatisfaction with the way Democrats have been running things.  Nationally, that's seen in poll results on everything from the economy to health care.  Locally, Rio Nuevo has gone past boondoggle and is well into disaster. 

Then there's the Tucson garbage tax--remember all politics is local, but local politics is really local, and it doesn't get any more local than the garbage tax.  In Tucson, Democrats complained that the tax was too high and then got into office and promptly raised it. This might be the one time where having your party designation on the ballot isn't really a good thing.

The second major factor is Proposition 200.  Talk about Alice in Wonderland.  Prop 200 would force the city to spend more money on police and fire protection.  That's normally a Democratic push.  But the Tucson Business Community isn't happy that Tucson spends so much money on touchy feely stuff and decided to force the City to spend more on police and fire in order to starve the rest of the beast.   Republicans--mainly Jim Click--have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars backing the Proposition and much of that has been on get out the vote efforts. (The Star and the Goldwater Institute are both against Prop. 200.)

Democrats have countered that Prop 200 is fiscally irresponsible--that might be a good message against the proposition, but it's likely to make the whole election turn on fiscal responsibility--and after the Rio Nuevo and garbage fee debacles, fiscal responsibility is  Republican territory. 

Finally, You will recall that 6,000 Tea Partiers showed up at Tucson Electric Park a few weeks ago.  I think it's likely that they will show up at the polls today--and it's not likely that they will be there to support the incumbents.

Even if the Tea Party crowd were predisposed toward the status quo, one thing is clear.  They won't be backing Karin Uhlich.

Uhlich posted a long screed on her website in which she blasted the "Tea Baggers." 

She was ultimately forced to apologize.

Democratic City Councilwoman Karin Uhlich apologized to Tucson Tea Party attendees Wednesday, after complaints that her campaign used a derogatory term that could be considered a sexual slur.

Note to Karin Uhlich--When the most logical pronunciation of your name is "You Lick" it's probably not a good idea to mock people using sexual innuendo.

Uhlich, may be in trouble, but from what sources in Tucson tell me,  Nina Trasoff has a stronger opponent and may actually be more vulnerable.  

So If I have to predict, I would say it's still likely that the Democrats will prevail. But if you are looking for one upset in your Pol Pool, bet agianst Trasoff. 

If it were legal, I would put money on a Republican sweep.  Sure, a parlay like that isn't likely to pay off, but it would pay 50 to 1 and that would make it a very good bet indeed. 

I think we might see some surprises in Tucson tonight.

Tribune to Shut Down at Year End

This item was just posted on the Trib's website.

The Tribune Newspapers will cease operations on Dec. 31, the parent company Freedom Communications said Monday.

Freedom officials made the announcement to Tribune employees Monday morning, citing the economic recession and changes in the newspaper industry that have cause many publications to close and others to file for bankruptcy protection.

Freedom, which itself is operating under Chapter 11 reorganization, had been attempting to sell the Tribune, but no acceptable offers have come forward, said Interim Chief Executive Burl Osborne.

Speaking of Spew

Republic Reporter Shaun McKinnon has a pretty balanced article on the costs and benefits of the Navajo Generating Station.  Unfortunately the picture and shrill caption that accompanies the article dramatically reduces the credibility of the entire story.

   
Whoever chose the word "spews" was obviously trying to create as negative an image as possible. 

What's worse is that in addition to being inflammatory, the caption isn't accurate.  While the plant obviously has emissions, this picture was clearly taken on a cold winter morning and the visible emissions are simply condensed water vapor--much like the contrails that you see from high altitude jet planes. 

I See a Scandal EMERGEing

Dana Marie Kennedy is challenging Sal DiCiccio for the Phoenix City Council.  Normally it's tough to take on an incumbent, but Kennedy has instant credibility because she's the Director of Emerge Arizona.

Our mission is to identify, educate and inspire Democratic women who want to pursue elective office at the local and state level in Arizona.

DiCiccio for his part thinks that Kennedy and Emerge are a bit too close.  In fact, it looks like Emerge has morphed into a campaign committee disguised as a non-profit.  Since non-profits can take corporate contributions and since they themselves are actually corporations, the IRS doesn't appreciate it when non-profit corporations morph into campaign committees.

So DiCiccio has filed a complaint with the IRS.   I'm sure Kennedy will say that the complaint is purely political, but even a glance at the packet shows that the complaint isn't frivolous.  Here's a screen shot of one of the key pages.

 

Let's Be Friends

Ok, I know I'm a bit behind the curve, but I'm beginning to appreciate the power of Facebook.  Kyrsten Sinema gets my award for making the best use of the platform and as one of her thousands of friends I'm getting a steady stream of updates about her book tour and appearances. 

On the Republican side, I think Len Munsil probably has the best organization, but John Munger is the Republican who uses the medium most effectively.  He does a great job promoting events and giving a heads up about his upcoming media appearances.  Naturally, David Schweikert--who was a Geek before Geeks were cool--uses the platform well.  He has nearly 2,000 friends, but what I find interesting (he would say "fascinating") is that he and I have nearly 400 shared friends.

So if you are interested in politics, want to eliminate the middle man and don't already have a Facebook account, sign up for one and if you do have an account, look me up and hit me with a friend request. 

Deal or No Deal?

The Arizona Daily Star is offering a buy out. If this announcement follows the traditional pattern, employees will be offered a buy out and if management doesn't meet it's target, they will follow up with a layoff.  The severence package for those who are laid off is usually arround half as generous as those who take the buy out. 

Here'e the full text of the announcement.

Star Employee Announcement -
Dear Arizona Daily Star colleague,

We are announcing a voluntary workforce reduction program for Star employees who meet certain eligibility criteria. This voluntary program is available to all positions in our newsroom, with the exception of reporters. Only a limited number of volunteers will be accepted from each department.

Eligible employees will meet the following criteria:
• Regular full-time or part-time employment status, working 20+ hours each week;
• Completed 5+ full years of service for Star pension vesting;
• Qualify for the Star pension benefit plan as of Oct 31, 2009 (55+ years of age).

Eligible employees approved for the program will receive:
• A severance package that includes two weeks of pay for each completed year of service (maximum of 26 weeks) in exchange for signing a severance agreement;
• Severance paid bi-weekly for the duration of the period, less any applicable taxes or withholdings;
• Participation in the 65% government subsidy program toward the cost of COBRA for up 9 months to subsidize medical coverage, based on the elected medical plan and American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) eligibility guidelines.

If we receive more than an acceptable number of volunteers in a department, we will select employees based on length of service. While we prefer to avoid reductions, it may become necessary to consider an involuntary workforce reduction if we do not receive a sufficient number of volunteers.

If any employee wishes to inquire about the program details, please contact Kelly Acevedo, VP Human Resources, at 573-4252. The deadline to submit a written application to Kelly is 5 PM on Wednesday, October 28, 2009. We will review the applications and meet with the approved employees on November 5th and 6th, with that Friday as the last day of work.

Sincerely,
John M. Humenik
Publisher & Editor